You have a disease. Don’t worry. It’s not an STD. Our consensual interaction last night wasn’t the catalyst. The disease you have is called neomania. Neomania is a love for new things. Last year, I bought charcoal toothpaste. Charcoal. Toothpaste. What? If I hear one more thing about CBD oil, I’m going to punt my sanity [...]
You have a disease. Don't worry. It's not an STD. Our consensual interaction last night wasn't the catalyst.
The disease you have is called neomania.
Neomania is a love for new things.
Last year, I bought charcoal toothpaste. Charcoal. Toothpaste. What? If I hear one more thing about CBD oil, I'm going to punt my sanity into another solar system. TRY THIS NEW PROPRIETARY BLEND SUPPLEMENT! (Do you vape, bro?)
Scammers hunt neomaniacs for sport. Beyond sucking your savings dry, neomania can also kill your ambitions to look better and feel better. Glucosamine won't fix your knees. That Gorilla Bow thing ain't gonna turn your body into something strangers are inclined to stalk on Instagram.
Luckily, neomania isn't terminal.
There's a cure.
Lindy.
Let's play a game.
You're standing in front of two books. Book A was released today. Book B has been on bookstore shelves for 50 years. Which book will be around 25 years from now?
The obvious answer is the new book. Because it's fresh. Like a baby. It has an entire life to live. The old book? It's grandpa. Can't even trickle turds into a toilet anymore. Has to be on the way out.
Old things suck.
Old people can't drive.
Old potatoes grow fungus.
New things rock.
New cars are shiny.
New computers are faster.
Sound right.
It's not.
Not everything is time's bitch.
Perishable things deteriorate over time. A freshly picked apple will survive longer than an apple that was picked two weeks ago. New things tend to be better (last longer) than old things… in the land of perishables.
But there's a world opposite of perishables, aptly named non-perishables. Non-perishables don't deteriorate over time. Think of Einstein's theory of relativity. It was created in 1905. It's the same now as it was back then. The paper the theory was written on isn't pristine (paper is perishable). But the idea is always going to be the idea. An equation's letters and numbers will never decay.
This changes everything.
Older is better.
In the land of non-perishables, where things don't deteriorate over time, old things tend to be better (last longer) than new things. Because they have a history of utility.
Think of the fork. It has been around since the 4th century. In other words, the fork is damn useful. If the fork didn't do it's job, we wouldn't use it. Useless non-perishables don't get old, they get forgotten.
Remember bloodletting? Or trepanning? Me neither. This is why new non-perishables are “risky.” They have yet to amass evidence of utility, or, even worse, evidence of anti-utility. In the 1930's, smoking cigarettes was “physician approved.” The dangers of smoking (and drilling holes into your skull on account of a headache) weren't discovered until years later.
Given non-perishables' relationship with time, the longer a non-perishable has been around, the longer it will probably be around. Every passing day reinforces a non-perishable's usefulness, which means every passing day brings it closer to immortality.
The fork isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
This is the Lindy effect.
We rarely go through the mental gymnastics necessary to decode perishables from non-perishables. We have a bias towards perishable-based thinking when it comes to newness, oldness, and timeliness. We hear word “new” and think of new cars and computers. We think of faster, shinier, and better.
We hear the word “old” we think of grandmas with goiters and rotting potatoes sprouting roots even though they're no longer below ground. DEAR PLUCKED POTATOES: STOP GROWING ROOTS.
This temporal bias bites us in the behind, especially when navigating the fitness, wellness, and self-improvement industries. Time tested (Lindy approved) strategies are often overlooked in favor of new (unproven) strategies.
Check it out…
MENTAL HEALTH
If you dive into the latest and greatest self-improvement book, I'd bet my buttocks you'll find partially digested clumps of Stoicism and Buddhism that've been regurgitated and reheated and retrofit to the 21st century.
Also, meditation.
MUSCLE GROWTH
You can stroke your Gorilla Bow until you blister, but you're much better off hoisting iron things and playing on gymnastics rings. What did Eugen Sandow use to build his body? It worked back then. It'll work now.
FOOD AND HEALTH
Food itself is perishable, but the idea of eating certain things to sustain life is non-perishable. What were people eating 100 years ago?
THINKING BETTER
Cognitive biases can be seen throughout old books and fables. Aesop’s The Fox and the Grapes, for instance, has seeds of cognitive dissonance.
This ruins everything.
Now that you know about neomania and the Lindy effect, you'll be able to embrace reliable old remedies instead of falling for new sexy gimmicks.
Just kidding.
Letting Lindy lead isn't easy. Beyond our “nose blindness” towards non-perishable's topsy-turvy relationship with time, new things remain electric because they do something old things can't: tease.
Things that are Lindy tested and Lindy approved have less sex appeal. They're too familiar. They're your wife (sorry wives).
New things can use old things as trampolines and promise a better future, which stimulates your imagination. You think about a future where things are quicker, easier, and faster than they are now.
Of course, the promises new things make are usually lies… but what if they aren't?
This is what gets you.
Lindy doesn't say new things are inherently bad, just that they're less proven. What if a new thing really is as good as it promises?
What if CBD oil is magic? What if vaping gives you the “benefits” of smoking cigarettes without the downsides of smoking cigarettes? What if penguin semen does repair the cartilage in your knees?
Do you wait ten years (or however long) for a non-perishable to get Lindy's seal of approval? How would you feel if you sat on the sidelines for ten years, only to discover that something is (was) as magical as promised?
When you're experiencing pain, discomfort, or distress… it's difficult to resist the pull towards new things, especially when they claim to be the answer (with a new and improved twist!) to your specific problem. In these moments, intellect hides and emotions ride.
What's the solution?
This is the answer.
Why are you still here? Did you make sure I was Lindy approved? Probably not. Mindless consumption wins again!
I don't know.
I don't know if you should always listen to Lindy, but here are some parting thoughts for you…
First, no fun.
I bought charcoal toothpaste because it was cool. I didn't buy charcoal toothpaste because I thought it'd be better for my teeth.
If you're indulging in newness just because it's cool, don't. The juice has to be worth the squeeze. Maybe experimenting with CBD oil is a good idea if you have debilitating anxiety and depression.
Second, send in skin.
If something new (Product X) is promising to be the answer, ask yourself the following question: Will Product X be on the shelf ten years from now? If you don't think it will, stay away.
You can make this even funner by gambling your newborn's life away. Upon using Product X, you give the mafia permission to murder your firstborn if Product X isn't on shelves ten years from now.
In other words, if black charcoal toothpaste isn't being sold ten years from now, my firstborn is a goner. Do you really think your favorite influencer's “proprietary” supplement will be around ten years from now?
Third, robbing graves.
As mentioned, Lindy isn't perfect. Lindy favored horses and birds, not cars and phone… at first. Lindy is a heuristic. It’s imperfect on purpose. It’s a mental shortcut that helps you avoid getting booby trapped by your biases without your conscious awareness.
This is why Lindy is a start, not an end. And even if it were an end, the odds are ever in Lindy’s favor.
Because when you dig for evidence against Lindy, you’re falling for the survivorship bias. You’re highlighting outliers and turning a blind eye to the much larger cemetery of evidence.
May the Gains be with you,
Ant
ps
Most of us have selective neomania, not universal neomania. We like new things in certain domains, not all domains. New computers are awesome. New operating systems and software that you have to relearn how to use? Not so much.